Training Project Economics and Risk Analysis – gas project investment , 15 – 17 Nov 2017, De Java Hotel Bandung

October 23, 2017 • Tell FriendsPrinter Friendly

The course comprises 12 chapters with respective workshops where the attendee will apply the theory in a real upstream project data set. To achieve this, the attendee will use the free Monte Carlo add in excel for probabilistic risk analysis, and excel spreadsheet for real options analysis.

This course will:

  • learn the basic of evaluation techniques as well as the practical the implementation of these techniques to upstream project
  • enable participants to identify and quantifying risk using probabilistic Monte Carlo Simulation
  • learn how to assess the value of information in managing the uncertainty of the upstream project using decision tree analysis
  • bring participants up to date on recent development in project modeling and evaluation using advance valuation techniques.

Course Agenda

Day 1: Gas business overview and economics analysis

1. Gas business overview

  • Gas upstream business
  • Gas distribution business

2. Fundamental gas project economics and key valuation drivers

  • Upstream Project
  • Midstream project
  • Downstream project
  • Integrated gas project

3. Key valuation measure:

  • Undiscounted Cash Flow Analysis (IRR, Pay Out Time)
  • Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (NPV, PI)
    • Workshop 1: Building an economics model of gas project

4. Identifying sources of uncertainty – Sensitivity analysis (spider and tornado charts)

  • Workshop 2: Building a sensitivity model using data table function

5. Building scenario analysis for different reserve and development scenario

  • Workshop 3: Building a scenario model using index match function 

Day 2: Probabilistic Analysis  

6. Introduction to uncertainty and risk – Monte Carlo simulation;

  • Workshop 4: Building a quantitative Monte Carlo model using SIPMath tools

7. Quantifying variable uncertainty in upstream project using simulations techniques;

  • Workshop 5: Assessing the effect of variable uncertainty on project’s NPV

8. Integrated upstream and downstream project

  • Workshop 6: Building a integrate economics model.

Day 3: Modern Real Option Analysis

9. Introduction to real options analysis – Birth and intuition behind Real Options

10. Conventional vs Modern Valuation

  • Workshop 7: Fundamental difference between DCF vs Modern

11. Real Options techniques using fuzzy pay off model

  • Workshop 8: building fuzzy pay off model

12. Real Options techniques using Paddock Siegel and Smith model

  • Workshop 9: Valuation undeveloped and unexplored reserve
  • Case study:  
    • Acquisition of Hess Indonesia
    • Pertamina-Shell vs Hess


Xperiential and Professional Training (XP training) Ngemplak Karangjati Jl. Monjali No. 45 RT. 003 RW 036 Sinduadi Mlati Sleman Yogyakarta 55284 Ph. / Fax. 0274-6411288. E-mail:

CP : Anton Wibowo (08118202389), Indah cahyani (08122758968), Naila Zahara (081321754000)

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