Recovery is not strong enough (ICP forecast as of 12 May 2015)

May 12, 2015 • Tell FriendsPrinter Friendly

The summary of market info as of 11 May 2015 is as follows:

  • The higher oil price in April is a respond to the declining oil production scenario in the U.S. It was reflected by the number of active rigs operating, which was the fewest since September 2010. The projection of increasing storage capacity in China and geo-politic  issue in the middle east are other factors.
  • The concern is, if prices climb high enough, it will re-stimulate the output and boost the rig count and pressure down the price again.
  • OPEC plans to meet on June 5, to stabilize crude prices. However, it will be very difficult for OPEC to changed their mind, not to cut the production, especially since oil price has rebounded.
  • EIA forecasts that Brent prices will average $60.8/bbl in 2015 and $70.5/bbl in 2016, while WTI prices expected to be $54.3/bbl in 2015 and $65.6/bbl in 2016.

Based on the graph, we estimate SLC will increase to $64.94/bbl in May 2015 and will average $ 62.17/bbl for full year 2015.

May 2015

Disclaimer: The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only and would be updated every month.

 

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