Public Course: A New Era of Project Economics and Risk Analysis in the Face of Uncertainty, 12 – 14 September 2017, Le Meridien Hotel Jakarta

July 1, 2017 • Tell FriendsPrinter Friendly

The course comprises 12 chapters with respective workshops where the attendee will apply the theory in a real upstream project data set. To achieve this, the attendee will use the free Monte Carlo add in excel for probabilistic risk analysis, and excel spreadsheet for real options analysis.

This course will:

  • learn the basic of evaluation techniques as well as the practical the implementation of these techniques to upstream project
  • enable participants to identify and quantifying risk using probabilistic Monte Carlo Simulation
  • learn how to assess the value of information in managing the uncertainty of the upstream project using decision tree analysis
  • bring participants up to date on recent development in project modeling and evaluation using advance valuation techniques.


Course Agenda

Day 1: Conventional Analysis

  1. Introduction – Fundamental of Upstream project
  2. Key Valuation Measure:
  • Undiscounted Cash Flow Analysis (IRR, Pay Out Time)
  • Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (NPV, PI)

Workshop 1: Building a PSC cash flow model

  1. Identifying sources of uncertainty – Sensitivity analysis (spider and tornado charts)

Workshop 2: Building a sensitivity model using data table function

  1. Building economic analysis for different reserve and development scenario

Workshop 3: Building a scenario model using index match function

Day 2: Probabilistic and Decision Tree Analysis  

  1. Introduction to uncertainty and risk – Monte Carlo simulation;

Workshop 4: Building a quantitative Monte Carlo model using free montecarlo simulation tools

  1. Quantifying variable uncertainty in upstream project using simulations techniques;

Workshop 5: Assessing the effect of variable uncertainty on project’s NPV

  1. Introduction to decision tree scenario analysis.

Workshop 6: Building a decision tree analysis for Exploration drilling decision

  1. Quantifying Value of Information (VOI) in appraisal drilling or seismic activity;

Workshop 7:

1.  Assessing VOI in appraisal drilling prior to Final Development Decision (FID)

2. Harvard Business Case Study: Penzoil vs Texaco

Day 3: Modern Real Option Analysis

  1. Introduction to real options analysis – Birth and institution behind Real Options
  2. Conventional vs Modern Valuation

Workshop 8: Fundamental difference between DCF vs Modern

  1. Market Comparable – Modern Valuation techniques (Paddock Siegel and Smith model)

Workshop 10: Valuation undeveloped reserve

  1. Implementing Real Options in merger and acquisition process

Workshop 11: Case Study In Indonesia:      

1. Acquisition of Foreign Company Assets in Indonesia

2. Pertamina vs Shell in exploration block tender

3. Acquisition of PSC block in East Java


Xperiential and Professional Training (XP training) Ngemplak Karangjati Jl. Monjali No. 45 RT. 003 RW 036 Sinduadi Mlati Sleman Yogyakarta 55284 Ph. / Fax. 0274-6411288. E-mail:

CP : Anton Wibowo (08118202389), Indah cahyani (08122758968), Naila Zahara (081321754000)

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