“Lower Forever ??” (ICP Forecast as of 10 August 2017)

August 10, 2017 • Tell FriendsPrinter Friendly

The summary of market info as of 10 August 2017 is as follows:

  • Last month, the crude prices increased in response to strong U.S. refinery demand as well as the rate of U.S. oil production growth will slowing down due to some U.S. companies will reduce its investment spending for the rest of the year. In addition in supply side factors, Saudi Arabia announced a cap on the country’s crude oil exports in August.
  • However, for upcoming months, the price will be difficult to exceeds $50 a barrel on concerns that supplies may rise once the summer driving season ends. This is also supported by EIA’s latest forecast on increasing U.S. oil output and cutting price estimates for this year as signs of elevated global supplies stoked due to OPEC’s cut-campaign aren’t helping to rebalance the market as expected.
  • Shell’s CEO talked about oil being “lower forever”. He didn’t actually mean forever-ever, rather he thought that the market will have quite a bit of movement in the oil price going forward under unsure long-term demand growth, there is a 50-50 chance that we will see oil prices trend up.
  • EIA forecasts WTI at $48.93, while Brent at $50.75/bbl for FY2017.

ICP was forecasted at 48.06/bbl in August 2017 and will average at $ 49.6/bbl for full year 2017.

 

August 2017

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