Lingering concerns (ICP forecast as of 12 August 2016)

August 12, 2016 • Tell FriendsPrinter Friendly

The summary of market info as of 12 August 2016 is as follows:

  • Start on July 2016, ICP formula referred to dated Brent + alpha. Based on the actual July, alpha for SLC is – 4.33 while dated Brent is US$45.1
  • The weakness of crude market may persist as demand slows seasonally mainly due to the end of the driving season in US and the high inventories of fuel in the supply side continue exerting pressure.
  • However, IEA sees  global oil markets will continue to re- balance this year as a pick-up in demand from refiners absorbs record output from several Persian Gulf producers.
  • Opec has plan to meet in September to discuss ways to stabilize falling prices
  • EIA forecasted higher prices than previous month. EIA forecasts WTI at $41.16 for 2016, while Brent at $41.60/bbl for 2016.

Based on the graph, we estimate SLC will be decreased to $38.90/bbl in June 2016 and will average $ 38.06/bbl for full year 2016.

August 2016

Disclaimer: The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only and would be updated every month.

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