Archive for the ‘Article’ Category

Integrating Decision Options and Uncertainty of Commodity Price in the Project Evaluation (to be presented in 36th Indonesian Petroleum Association (IPA) conference, 24 May 2012 at 08.00 am, Nuri Room, Jakarta Convention Center)

Thursday, April 26th, 2012

The era of high uncertainty of commodity prices requires an economic reassessment of many natural resource projects.

Current conventional NPV analysis has a limitation in recognizing uncertainty during project life and some biased in its assumption, i.e.:

  1. It is assumed future cash flows to be certain to happen.
  2. Project risk does not change throughout its life
  3. It is assumed once the project is undertaken;  it will not be affected by any future managerial decision.

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Managing Assets/Projects using Portfolio Strategy

Monday, July 18th, 2011

This article discuss how we can apply portfolio theory in managing our assets or project to achieve a company’s goals and targets.

BACKGROUND

A Company should routinely apply portfolio management techniques to optimize the value of their assets and projects. The portfolio methods were used to give valuable quantitative analysis for management to forecast and monitor a company’s performance against specific goals and targets on a probabilistic basis.

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Economic Evaluation on Bidding Proposals in the Tender of Oil and Gas Blocks (35th Indonesian Petroleum Association conference, May 2011)

Saturday, February 19th, 2011

(This article discusses how to determine the appropriate value of signature bonus and firm commitment in the bid proposal for block tender. This article had been presented in Indonesian Petroleum Association (IPA) Conference, session 15, date 19 May 2011 at 08.00 am, kakatua Room, Jakarta Convention Center)

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Oil Price Forecasting Using Econometric Model

Tuesday, November 9th, 2010

(artikel ini ditulis untuk memberikan gambaran mengenai penggunaan model ekonometrik dalam membantu menentukan asumsi harga minyak)

Dalam melakukan studi keekonomian, salah satu parameter yang sangat berpengaruh terhadap nilai keekonomian proyek migas adalah harga minyak. Parameter ini juga sangat berpengaruh dalam perencanaan anggaran perusahaan migas untuk tahun berikutnya.
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A New Era of Risk and Uncertainty Analysis in Project Valuation (The 25th Pan Pacific Congress of Appraisers, Valuers, and Counselors, Sept 2010, Bali)

Thursday, August 26th, 2010

This paper had been presented in the 25th Pan Pacific Congress of Real Estate Appraisers, Valuers, and Counselors (Session: Mining Asset/Extractive Industries Valuation).
Please see their website (www.ppc2010Bali.com)
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Financing Analysis on Upstream project using Probabilistic Approach

Tuesday, July 27th, 2010

artikel ini ditulis untuk memberikan gambaran mengenai penggunaan teknik probabilistik dalam analisis pembiayaan proyek hulu migas (more…)

A New Era of Project Economics (Indocita magazine, Januari 2010 issue)

Monday, January 25th, 2010

Pada edisi Januari 2010, Majalah Indocita menampilkan resensi buku “A New Era of Project Economics and Investment Decision Techniques” yang ditulis oleh Bapak Ditto Pappilanda.
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Probabilistic Approach to Value Different Equity Interest in Multi Pay Exploration Blocks

Friday, January 15th, 2010

This article will discuss how monte carlo simulation can be used to determine the optimal share to be farm out for sharing risk in an exploration prospect . (more…)

Determining Stock Price of Listed Oil Company using Real Options

Thursday, November 12th, 2009

This article will discuss how real options can be used to determine the stock price of Oil Company listed in stock exchange. A hostile take-over of an oil company in 2004 will be used as a case study. A real options model from Paddock, Siegel, and Smith (PSS model) will be used to value undeveloped and unexplored reserves belonging to this company and determine stock price of this company based on the published data.

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Coal Project Valuation Using Forward Market Price Model – DCF vs Real Options

Tuesday, August 18th, 2009

Pengantar

Artikel ini merupakan aplikasi dynamic DCF dan Real Options dalam menghitung keekonomian proyek tambang batubara.
Artikel ini berusaha menjelaskan bagaimana penentuan faktor diskonto yang lebih proporsional terhadap arus kas yang dihasilkan dari suatu model keekonomian proyek Dengan melihat besarnya deviasi arus kas yang terjadi setiap tahunnya yang dihasilkan dari simulasi model harga forward batu bara, kita akan membandingkan hasil yang didapat dari metode DCF dan RO dalam menghitung nilai keekonomian proyek batubara tersebut.

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