“Bearish catalyst” if the talks fail (ICP forecast as of 13 April 2016)

April 13, 2016 • Tell FriendsPrinter Friendly

The summary of market info as of 13 April 2016 is as follows:

  • Market is currently waiting for April 17 meeting in Doha. The market is showing a lot of cautious optimism that some sort of deal might be agreed. The current $40 prices could tumble to $33 or even $30 a barrel if the meeting ends without an agreement.
  • Saudi Arabia has been indicated that they will only prepared to abide by a freeze if all countries agree. if other countries raise their output, the kingdom will boost its own sales. Iran has repeatedly made clear its intention to revive production
  • EIA reported the same forecast prices than previous month, reflects there is no expectations for forecast oil demand growth and even though there is an agreement after the meeting, this would not accelerate the rebalancing of the oil market. EIA forecasts WTI at $34.60 for 2016, while Brent at $34.73/bbl for 2016.

Based on the graph, we estimate SLC will be increased to $35.66/bbl in April 2016 and will average $ 35.37/bbl for full year 2016.

April 2016

Disclaimer: The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only and would be updated every month.

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