Back on track (ICP forecast as of 9 June 2016)

June 10, 2016 • Tell FriendsPrinter Friendly

The summary of market info as of 9 June 2016 is as follows:

  • For the first time in eight consecutive months, ICP has finally back to its track, which is higher than the WTI.
  • Oil rose to the highest level in more than 10 months as government data showed U.S. crude supplies declined, crude stockpiles dropped by 3.23 million barrels, according to EIA. Market expect supply and demand to come closer into balance, which will result in higher oil prices through the end of the year.
  • U.S. crude oil production is projected to decrease from 9.4 million b/d in 2015 to 8.6 million b/d in 2016 due to decline in Lower 48 onshore production.
  • China’s consumption is forecast to grow by 0.4 million b/d in both 2016 and 2017. On the other hand, non-OECD consumption growth is expected to be 1.3 million b/d in 2016 and 1.4 million b/d in 2017.
  • EIA forecasted higher prices than previous month. EIA forecasts WTI at $42.94 for 2016, while Brent at $43.10/bbl for 2016.

Based on the graph, we estimate SLC will be increased to $53.01/bbl in June 2016 and will average $ 46.59/bbl for full year 2016.

June 2016

Disclaimer: The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only and would be updated every month.

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