“Lower Forever ??” (ICP Forecast as of 10 August 2017)

10 Aug 2017 | Tell FriendsPrinter Friendly

The summary of market info as of 10 August 2017 is as follows:

  • Last month, the crude prices increased in response to strong U.S. refinery demand as well as the rate of U.S. oil production growth will slowing down due to some U.S. companies will reduce its investment spending for the rest of the year. In addition in supply side factors, Saudi Arabia announced a cap on the country’s crude oil exports in August.
  • However, for upcoming months, the price will be difficult to exceeds $50 a barrel on concerns that supplies may rise once the summer driving season ends. This is also supported by EIA’s latest forecast on increasing U.S. oil output and cutting price estimates for this year as signs of elevated global supplies stoked due to OPEC’s cut-campaign aren’t helping to rebalance the market as expected.
  • Shell’s CEO talked about oil being “lower forever”. He didn’t actually mean forever-ever, rather he thought that the market will have quite a bit of movement in the oil price going forward under unsure long-term demand growth, there is a 50-50 chance that we will see oil prices trend up.
  • EIA forecasts WTI at $48.93, while Brent at $50.75/bbl for FY2017.

ICP was forecasted at 48.06/bbl in August 2017 and will average at $ 49.6/bbl for full year 2017.


August 2017


Training Project Economics and Risk Analysis – gas project investment , 15 – 17 Nov 2017, De Java Hotel Bandung

23 Oct 2017 | Tell FriendsPrinter Friendly

The course comprises 12 chapters with respective workshops where the attendee will apply the theory in a real upstream project data set. To achieve this, the attendee will use the free Monte Carlo add in excel for probabilistic risk analysis, and excel spreadsheet for real options analysis.

This course will:

  • learn the basic of evaluation techniques as well as the practical the implementation of these techniques to upstream project
  • enable participants to identify and quantifying risk using probabilistic Monte Carlo Simulation
  • learn how to assess the value of information in managing the uncertainty of the upstream project using decision tree analysis
  • bring participants up to date on recent development in project modeling and evaluation using advance valuation techniques.